My Take: Umno and BN likely to lose the coming General Election

 

By Stephen Ng

        Frankly, if the General Election is held this year, Umno and its Barisan Nasional component parties are likely to perform badly. 

        Barely one year after the Covid-19 pandemic, the country is still reeling from its standstill economy between 2020 and 2021. People's tongues are still wagging that should BN win the general election and become the government, former prime minister, Najib Abdul Razak, his wife Rosmah Mansor, and Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi will be set free among others.

        The Najib-Rosmah duo together with flamboyant playboy Jho Low had caused billions of Ringgit to disappear from the public coffers, leaving the nation still in huge debts -- to be precise, in the quantum of RM32.08 billion as at June 30, 2022. This makes the 1MDB scandal the mother of scandals and as the US Department of Justice put it, 'unprecedented.'

        Much to the credit of Pakatan Harapan's 22 months in Putrajaya, and the work of its seventh prime minister, a total of RM19.28 billion had been recovered and the amount used to reduce the debts. 

        Had PH not won the last general election, Umno and Barisan Nasional would still be in denial of the damages caused by the disgraced couple and their accomplices. Najib, on the other hand, is unlikely to be pardoned before all his court cases are dispensed of. 

        Till today, both Najib and Rosmah have been found guilty and the amount they have to pay back is in excess of RM1 billion. This is a small amount, compared to the billions that the country now owes. 

        Although the taxes that Najib and members of his own family owe have yet to be taken into consideration, not a single sen had been paid into the federal coffers. 

        Any attempt to pardon either Najib or Rosmah must take into consideration the millions of Ringgit that they have to pay; or else, the royal pardon would be frowned upon by the Lady of Justice. 

A Long Way to Go

        To the chagrin of most people, the Sheraton Move denied Malaysians of their GE14 mandate, and during the last two years, we have seen two new prime ministers. Yet, a number of others in the court cluster had been given the acquittal. For this reason, many in the civil society would still find it hard to forgive the traitors for their unprecedented move. 

        Although band aids will surely be offered by Prime Minister, Ismail Sabri Yaakob during the upcoming budget, the economy is still reeling from the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. Most people are still bleeding from lack of economic activities. 

        Businesses which were closed down during the pandemic have been crippled permanently and are unlikely to bounce back. Thousands are out of job, and many who were in the M40 have slid into the B40 category unknowingly. 

         The reality remains: The government now faces a RM17 billion shortfall to repay 1MDB’s total outstanding debt, said finance minister Tengku Zafrul Aziz on July 12 this year. The first question that comes to mind is: Where would the money come from? 

        Here again, the answer is from taxpayers' money, which also means, monies that can be taken from the national petroleum company or Petronas. 

        Bearing in mind that the national wealth is meant for the future generation of Malaysians, it is therefore, unlikely that with Undi-18, most young Malaysians would take this lightly. 

        The prospects of their future has been dampened by the need of the present generation to plug the debt craters created by Najib, Jho Low and a host of others who have yet to face justice. 

        It is not how fast the government is able to settle the debts. The earlier the better as the interest alone would kill the goose that lays the golden egg. However, in the aftermath of the 1MDB scandal, most Malaysians are now fully awakened that they can no longer allow politicians to take charge.

The Biggest Losers

        The biggest losers in the coming GE will be former prime minister, Dr Mahathir Mohamad. As the proverbial saying goes, "Reap what you sow," Dr Mahathir is now reaping what he sowed. 

        In both Pakatan Harapan and Umno circles, people are cursing him for the sin of engineering the Sheraton Move. Despite his denial, Dr Mahathir was caught with his pants down by a young radio personality on BFM. An audio recording of the meeting between Dr Mahathir and Bersatu members further proved his culpability. 

        In Umno circles, the former prime minister is also constantly heckled, with some calling him Mamak, for his involvement in the bringing the downfall of their hero, Najib. They are most likely going to deny Dr Mahathir and his son, Mukhriz's chances of winning in the coming general election.

        The Sheraton Move's traitors will find it hard to even campaign, without being fired salvos from left and right. They do not stand a chance to win any seats. 

        Bersatu is also a small fly by comparison to both Umno and PAS. In an earlier write-up in Malaysiakini, I had predicted that all three parties would go their separate ways before GE15 when it comes to seat allocations. 

        After all, why would Umno give away their seats to Pas, and vice versa? In the event of a breakup, they would need every seat to consolidate their positions. And Bersatu is like the deer that is crushed when the two elephants clash. 

        On the surface, all the parties may appear still working in a Muafakat arrangement, but in reality, both Pas and Umno have different ideologies that set them poles apart. 

Torchbearer

        Meanwhile, Pakatan Harapan in Penang has managed to transform the island state in just three terms. From being a 'Darul Sampah,' it has been awarded ASEAN Clean City for the third time in a row, something which Selangor has failed to achieve within the same time frame. 

        Behaviours similar to that of Jamal to sabotage the island's cleanliness will not bode well with the rest of the populace, and would certainly backfire on Umno.

        The story may be different for Selangor. Unless certain individuals are culled from contesting in GE15, PH in Selangor may lose a few important seats, but it may still remain in power for yet another term. 

        The red flags regarding PH's performance in the state have been raised time and again over the last two terms, yet PH state leaders continue to turn on a deaf ear to the complaints from the grassroots. If this continues into the 16th general election, PH can kiss Selangor goodbye. So, I now agree with Rafizi Ramli and Nurul Izzah Anwar when they first predicted that PH may lose Selangor.

        Let me repeat: if PH Council leaders leave the Selangor leadership status quo, there is a chance that the collapse of Selangor may be much faster. However, if they see the danger signs and replace the non-performers with some more vibrant personalities, Selangor may survive beyond GE16. All eyes are now on the PH national leadership.

        The civil society is ready to punish any coalition for failing to deliver their services whether Pakatan or Barisan. As it is, PH has already failed its promises to deliver the local council election; instead, they have used the positions of local councillors as political rewards. A number of these local councillors picked for the job are hardly fit for the job.

        However, Penang will be the torchbearer with people now able to see what good governance can achieve for both the state and the country. The `miracle,' once attributed to Singapore is now possible even with Penang island. 

        Therefore, MCA president Wee Ka Siong can dream on when he confidently declared that MCA is ready to replace Gerakan in winning big in Penang. 

Also read:

https://surat-terbuka-mb-selangor.blogspot.com/2022/08/21-terms-thats-all-for-ph-in-selangor.html 

https://draft.blogger.com/blog/post/edit/3537833051441138217/3044091164008561515#