Who is likely to win in Tambun, Aminuddin or Anwar?

While the battle cry has begun, supporters of political parties must realise that we are fellow Malaysians. 

       At Pagoh, Johor, Perikatan Nasional (PN) supporters and Barisan Nasional (BN) supporters yelled at each other `Perompak' and `Penyamun' (bandits) and `katak' (political frogs). 

        At the end of the day, the rakyat want to see what both sides are capable of doing for the country. This is more important than all the booing of each other. 

Important Seats

        There are several important seats that we will watch closely especially the four-cornered fight between Harapan chairperson Anwar Ibrahim, Perak PN chairperson Ahmad Faizal Azumu, Umno’s Aminuddin Md Hanafiah, and GTA’s Abdul Rahim Tahir.

        Tambun seat was a stronghold of Umno and beween 1995 and 2018, it was won by former Minister of Finance II, Ahmad Husni Hanadzlah for five consecutive terms, before losing it to Pakatan Harapan's Ahman Faizal Azumu in 2013. 

        Ahmad Husni was a good MP, but the same cannot be said of Aminuddin who was a state assemblyman. We have to remember that Ahmad Husni was also a key witness in former Prime Minister, Najib Abdul Razak's 1MDB trial. Dropping Ahmad Husni from Tambun would mean a loss of votes for Barisan Nasional in the constituency.

        However, since then, Ahmad Faizal, like Azmin Ali, Muhyiddin Yasin and Zuraida Kamaruddin, has defected to join Perikatan Nasional (PN). 

          Therefore, although Ahmad Faizal won  the Tambun seat on Pakatan Harapan's ticket in 2018 by about 6% votes over the incumbent, Husni, it is unlikely that Faisal will be able to retain his seat, especially since he will be banking solely on PAS' votes.

            It is unlikely that GTA would not make much impact for a constituency that is semi-urban as GTA continues to play on former Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad's waning popularity. His is a passing generation.

 Down to Two

            The battle is likely to be fiercest between  Barisan Nasional's Aminuddin, who is a protege of Husni himself, and Anwar. 

            There is a high chance that Anwar will win the seat without much difficulty considering that Aminuddin is the only major contender. 

            This will, however, largely depend on how the Undi18 votes swing and whether there will be a strong turnout in the constituency compared to 2018.

           Every vote for Aminuddin is, in fact, a vote for Zahid Hamidi as the 10th prime minister. This is a game plan that will eventually allow Anwar the edge over Zahid, who is also the man behind the call for general election during the monsoon season.

Also, read https://come-to-senses.blogspot.com/2022/11/who-will-be-next-prime-minister-zahid.html