My toes started laughing when I read speculation that PAS and UMNO could work together in the next general election.
The pact forged during the Johor state election flies in the face of political reality.
The pact will not only be rejected by non-Muslims but also Umno supporters who cannot accept Pas’s excesses in using religion to gain political mileage where convenient.
Credit should go to Hannah Yeoh for being among the first to suggest that such a partnership was destined to hit an iceberg. The warning signs have been there all along.
But UMNO is not that naïve. Party leaders understand that PAS has a long history of forming political alliances only to later walk away from them, often leaving divisions and internal fractures in its wake.
Many still remember PAS's role during the Selangor Menteri Besar crisis, which deepened divisions within PKR over the proposed replacement of Khalid Ibrahim. The dispute exposed differing loyalties within the party and contributed to long-term tensions that eventually weakened the opposition bloc.
A similar pattern emerged in Bersatu. Political realignments and shifting alliances led to leaders taking different paths. Mahathir Mohamad was sidelined, while Muhyiddin Yassin moved closer to PAS. Mahathir later sought PAS's support to present a united front against the growing influence of Anwar Ibrahim, but those efforts ultimately failed. Today, Anwar leads a unity government that includes UMNO.
What UMNO may be overlooking, however, is PAS's long-term strategy. PAS's grassroots supporters in Johor were reportedly encouraged to support Barisan Nasional candidates in constituencies where PAS was not contesting. This undoubtedly helped BN secure a number of seats.
The real question is whether PAS and UMNO could ever agree on seat allocations in a future electoral pact.
Would PAS be willing to give way to UMNO? Or would UMNO surrender 20 or more seats to PAS? Perhaps PAS would demand additional seats in states such as Kedah, Perlis, and Pahang, where it believes it has strong prospects of victory.
Yet any seasoned political analyst will tell you that seat allocation is not merely a matter of strategy. It is a matter of survival.
In the event of another hung parliament, the number of seats controlled by each party will determine its bargaining power and influence in forming the next government. No political party willingly compromises its future leverage.
For that reason, it is difficult to imagine Ahmad Zahid Hamidi conceding more than a handful of seats to PAS, particularly when PAS is not even part of Barisan Nasional. UMNO already shares seats with long-standing coalition partners such as MCA and MIC, despite their diminished electoral relevance. Giving away additional seats to a potential rival would make even less political sense.
The competition between PAS and UMNO is therefore likely to continue. Choosing not to contest a seat today could simply mean handing a future opponent a stronger foothold tomorrow.
The slogan of muafakat may sound attractive, but political reality revolves around power. And power is ultimately determined by numbers.
The more seats a party contests, the greater its opportunity to win. The greater the number of seats it wins, the stronger its position becomes when governments are formed.
It is elementary, Mr Watson.
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